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According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), trimmed mean inflation was 3.2 per cent in the 12 months to November 2025, down from 3.3 per cent in the year to October 2025.
The headline consumer price index (CPI) also eased, falling from 3.8 per cent in the year to October to 3.4 per cent in the year to November.
This data marks the second posting since the ABS’ transition from a quarterly CPI to a complete monthly CPI as the primary measure of headline inflation.
Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers MP called the inflation results “very welcome and very encouraging”.
Inflation remained, however, “much higher than we would like”, he added.
“While we’ve made good progress on the economy together, we recognise the job is far from over because people are still under pressure,” Chalmers said.
Despite the softer November outcome, all of the major banks held firm in their predictions given before the holidays, when economists at National Australia Bank (NAB) and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) forecast a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its 3 February meeting.
NAB: Rates to increase 50 bps
NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent called the latest CPI results “marginally less alarming but still too high.”
NAB’s forecast was 3.6 per cent for headline inflation and 3.3 per cent for the trimmed mean, but larger falls in travel and car prices saw the actual outcome come in slightly lower.
However, this was not enough to alter NAB’s prediction of a “modest recalibration” against inflation risks, with the bank still pencilling in two 25-basis-point hikes in February and May.
CBA: Rates to increase 25 bps
CBA economist Harry Ottley said that the softer November headline CPI outcome should not be over-interpreted, as it was largely driven by volatile price movements in electricity and domestic travel.
Ottley said underlying inflation pressures remain firm, with trimmed mean inflation still running at levels it considers uncomfortable for the RBA and risks to December quarter inflation skewed to the upside.
As a result, Ottley maintained his call for the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25 bps at the February meeting.
ANZ: Rates on hold
ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell and head of Australian economics Adam Boyton were also unmoved. They found that Australia’s November inflation outcome points to a hold or a hike, if there is any move at all.
“While inflation looks to have run uncomfortably high in the second half of 2025, we expect the RBA to hold the cash rate,” they said.
“It will, however, be a close decision, and we’d expect a rate hike to be explicitly discussed.”
Westpac: Rates on hold
Westpac said the November CPI outcome was softer than expected, presenting downside risks to December quarter inflation estimates.
Senior economist Justin Smirk said the weaker result was driven by volatile items, particularly electricity and domestic travel, and does not signal a broader weakening in demand.
On that basis, Smirk said the data should be enough to reassure the RBA that further tightening is unnecessary, and he expects the central bank to hold rates at its February meeting and remain on hold through 2026.
AMP: Rates on hold
AMP was cautiously optimistic. Deputy chief economist Diana Mousina predicted that the recent uptick in inflation would not be sustained into 2026, despite some points of the economy, such as rents and construction costs, remaining sticky.
Mousina therefore predicted that rates would remain unchanged at the February meeting and throughout the year.
All eyes on quarterly CPI release
More data will be available before the next rate decision on 3 February, with the December quarter inflation statistics released on 28 January.
In the minutes of the December meeting, the RBA said it would still weigh on the quarterly CPI data more heavily, due to its “longer history and well-understood properties.”
Here, ANZ, Westpac, and NAB economists predicted the trimmed mean inflation rate in the December quarter at 0.8 per cent, quarter on quarter, while CBA forecast an outcome of 0.9 per cent.
[Related: CPI eased in November]