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New property data from analytics companies Cotality and PropTrack have both shown that there was strong house price growth over November, but the pace of acceleration has eased compared to recent months.
Property values in Australia marched to new record highs in November, accelerating their strong trajectory through 2025, yet the latest data signals a subtle easing in the pace of growth as the housing market encounters mounting affordability roadblocks.
Growth in home values has been broad-based throughout 2025, buoyed by interest rate cuts and tight supply, yet new research from property analytics company Cotality and separate data from PropTrack indicate the market may be facing headwinds as it heads into the traditionally quieter summer months.
Cotality’s national Home Value Index rose another 1.0 per cent in November, marking the third consecutive month of growth at or above 1 per cent, but subtly moderating from the 1.1 per cent gain recorded in October.
The rise means annual house prices are now up 7.5 per cent over the year to 30 November, with the national median value sitting at $888,941.
The mid-sized capitals are once again driving the strongest results, a trend seen over the past year, according to the Home Value Index.
Perth led the nation with a solid 2.4 per cent surge in values for the month, while Brisbane and Adelaide both recorded rises of at least 1.0 per cent.
By contrast, the two largest cities lagged, with Sydney values rising just 0.5 per cent and Melbourne up only 0.3 per cent, likely reflecting more acute affordability constraints.
Cotality’s latest affordability metrics show the national dwelling value-to-household income ratio at a record high of 8.2.
Cotality’s research director, Tim Lawless, highlighted the significant supply-demand mismatch in the top-performing markets.
“The skew towards the mid-sized capitals is especially evident in Perth, where listings are holding more than 40 per cent below average, buyer demand is elevated and the 2.4 per cent monthly rise in dwelling values has added just over $21,000 to the median in November, roughly $5,000/week,” Lawless said.
He noted that the subtle easing in national growth coincides with auction clearance rates trending lower since their mid-September peak and the widespread expectation that interest rates will remain on hold for an extended period following a rebound in inflation.
“With housing affordability already stretched and worsening, it stands to reason that fewer borrowers will be able to access credit as serviceability barriers become more prominent,” Lawless added.
Meanwhile, PropTrack’s Home Price Index for November reported that national home prices rose 0.5 per cent, pushing values to a new record high.
However, similar to the Cotality data, the pace of growth slowed compared to October.
National prices are now 8.7 per cent higher than a year ago, PropTrack found – the fastest annual growth since mid-2022.
This surge has added around $77,900 to the median home value ($873,000) over the past year, the analytics company said.
PropTrack suggested that capital city prices rose 0.5 per cent in November, up 8.5 per cent year on year.
Among the capitals, Perth and Adelaide led the monthly charge (both up 0.9 per cent), followed by Brisbane and Canberra (both up 0.6 per cent). All capitals hit record highs except Hobart.
Meanwhile, regional prices climbed 0.6 per cent, up a stronger 9.3 per cent year on year, continuing to outpace the capitals over the past year, supported by relative affordability and lifestyle appeal.
PropTrack’s REA Group senior economist, Eleanor Creagh, stated that the re-acceleration throughout 2025 has been underpinned by “lower interest rates, increased borrowing capacities, and a recovery in sentiment.”
Projections for December and beyond
Both property reports indicate that prices are expected to continue rising and will likely end the year much higher than initially forecast.
Both PropTrack and Cotality research confirm that the upswing has surpassed initial expectations, with national annual growth now sitting significantly higher than the relatively modest price rises experienced in 2024.
For context, at the end of 2024, PropTrack had forecast home prices would rise by up to 4 per cent in 2025.
But the rate of growth is likely to moderate moving forward, especially as the market shifts into the summer period.
PropTrack projects further price gains through summer, driven by tight total stock on the market, constrained new housing delivery, and supportive demand factors like population inflows and investor activity.
However, PropTrack cautions that with interest rates now expected to remain on hold for an extended period, affordability constraints are likely to see price growth moderate throughout 2026.
Cotality also signals potential headwinds, noting that stretched affordability, the expectations of prolonged interest rate holds, and the subtle easing of momentum in auction clearance rates are likely to impact housing sentiment and restrict credit access, potentially dampening future growth.
Similarly, Westpac’s recent Housing Pulse suggests that national dwelling prices are now expected to rise about 8 per cent in 2025, up from 6 per cent.
Brisbane and Perth would be leading the price growth boost, at roughly 14 per cent.
Further ahead, Westpac forecasts that property prices will be 6 per cent (down from 9 per cent), as a result of “delayed rate cuts, as well as a worse starting point for affordability and slower population growth”, with price growth easing back to around 5 per cent in 2026 (returning to long-run averages in real terms).
The Westpac Housing Pulse revealed that, if current growth tracks as forecast, Perth’s median dwelling price could approach $960,000 by end-2027, overtaking Melbourne and Adelaide to become the third most expensive capital city in Australia.
[Related: Housing affordability hits record lows]