Housing and politics expected to collide this federal election

To be held on or before 17 May 2025, the recent dissatisfaction in the housing market has many Aussies passionate for change.

As of 6 January, the LNP strengthened its two-party lead, with a preferred vote of 53 per cent (up 1 per cent from Christmas), while the ALP sits at 47 per cent (down 1 per cent from Christmas).

With housing expected to be a major focus in this election, the coming months could see policy changes ramp up across the board. Now, experts have come together to provide predictions as to how these promises will track.

Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo, chief economist at PRD Real Estate, said that there are two forms of housing policies to come from the election: direct and indirect.

“Direct would be grants and schemes like the first home buyer guarantee type policies and Housing Acceleration Fund (to stimulate housing supply). Indirect policies would be to lower certain income taxes or provide subsidies to other parts of a household budget (for example petrol, electricity, etc) so that there is more money to buy a house; or make it easier for apprentices to be in the building industry to create more homes,” said Mardiasmo.

“Direct policies – I don’t expect too much in the federal election campaigns, because there is usually specific [funds] attached, which is considered risky. If they get in, people will hold them to that [money] and it may/may not be possible once they are in office. If it’s not possible or veers from it, that’s a shot at credibility.

“Indirect policy is more possible, because it can be slightly more abstract. For example – we will give more attention to vocational programmes, in order to fastrack becoming apprentices. Or we will reduce red-tape to make it easier for builders.

“So I would say that the acknowledgement housing crisis is an issue that needs to be solved, it’s becoming too unaffordable, more concrete measures needed to attack from all sides, etc would be plenty. Some may say that it’s a key focus or forefront focus. However, in terms of what policy can be ‘promised’ it will err more towards indirect policies.”

According to LJ Hooker’s head of research and business intelligence, Mathew Tiller, housing supply will be a key consideration come election time.

“Housing supply remains the big issue. We’re simply not building enough homes to keep up with population growth, and construction costs have soared since COVID. In many areas, the cost to build a new home is higher the current existing home values, which means prices will need to rise further to make development feasible,” said Tiller.

Further to this, social jousting could prove to be a major influencer. The government recently injected large funding into social housing throughout Queensland, which could serve as a starting point for the rest of the nation. Western Australia saw similar attention, with Labor announcing over $200 million to boost housing and deliver community infrastructure in the state’s regions.

“There will be a focus on housing, likely in the social sector. The government will be very reluctant to introduce a stimulus again after the disaster that was the HomeBuilder grant – causing chaos across the industry and leading to rapid cost escalation and shortages in supply and trades,” said Daniel Senia, co-founder of Greenfield Homes.

“We’re likely to see ‘softer’ incentives such as the ability to use superannuation as deposits or stamp duty savings or perhaps a doubling down of the government’s Home Buyer scheme where government funding underpins home purchasers and effectively takes a first mortgage.”

Mardiasmo agrees that first home buyers will see some attention from the government: “If we are talking about changes that can be expected, I would expect a tweak in government grants/schemes for first home buyers, regional scheme, family guarantee etc; most likely in terms of the price caps for each area – to ensure that it’s more in line with the current median prices.

“I would also expect changes that answer to reducing red tape requirements, especially for builders and developers. Potentially changes in how Crown or federal government land can be treated/released/reasoned, so that there is more available land for residential construction. There could also be changes in foreign investment rules, to make it easier for our domestic companies to have foreign partnership to build residential stock.”

The next few months will likely see promises from each party ramp up. With an election to happen by the end of May, expect all parties to be much more vocal.

[Related: Government pledges billions to housing and infrastructure in Qld]

Jack Campbell is the editor of Broker Daily. After graduating from the University of Wollongong in 2022, Jack began his journalistic career working on Broker Daily’s sister brand, HR Leader. In August 2023 he was made the news editor and worked alongside some talented journalists writing articles and recording podcasts.

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