Price falls recorded in 4 capitals

In the first month of spring, dwelling values rose a modest 0.4 per cent, consistent with the changes recorded in July and August, which were at 0.3 per cent. This uptick reflected a continued slowdown in market momentum.

Nationally, housing values increased by 1.0 per cent during the September quarter, marking the lowest rise in the national Home Value Index (HVI) over a rolling three-month period since March 2023, when the market was experiencing the early phases of the current upswing.

Despite this national trend, the housing market displayed considerable diversity. Four capital cities experienced declines in dwelling values during the September quarter, with Melbourne leading the way with a drop of 1.1 per cent. Canberra, Hobart, and Darwin also recorded decreases over the quarter.

In contrast, Sydney’s home values continued to rise, though the 0.5 per cent increase for the September quarter represented the lowest growth since the three months ending February 2023, which had seen values decline by 0.3 per cent.

Midsized capitals, which had previously outpaced other cities in capital gains, also showed signs of losing momentum.

Perth saw values increase by 4.7 per cent in the third quarter, down from 6.2 per cent in the June quarter. Adelaide’s quarterly growth appeared to be topping out at 4.0 per cent, while Brisbane’s rise eased to 2.7 per cent, the lowest since April of the previous year.

The slowdown in growth coincided with an increasing number of home owners looking to sell. The flow of new listings was tracking 3.2 per cent higher than a year ago and 8.8 per cent above the five-year average for this time of year.

“The rise in real estate inventory is a seasonal trend, with spring and early summer one of the busiest periods of the year for selling,” said Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s research director.

“However, the flow of freshly advertised housing stock hasn’t been this high at this time of the year since 2021.”

Looking ahead, the immediate outlook for housing markets suggested further growth in housing values at the macro level, albeit with a gradual loss of momentum and increasing diversity across cities and regions.

Positive factors for housing conditions included improving sentiment amid a slowdown in inflation, tight labour markets, and a prevailing belief that the next move in interest rates would be a cut.

Additionally, household balance sheets were benefiting from tax cuts and energy rebates, which could enhance sentiment and borrowing capacity, while real income growth was expected to benefit from a decline in inflation.

“A cut to interest rates is looking likely either early next year or even late this year, which will provide a boost to borrowing capacity and should help to support a further lift in confidence to make high-commitment decisions like buying a home,” Lawless said.

“However, other downside factors may at least partially offset these upsides.”

[RELATED: Melbourne a ‘silver lining’ for home buyers]

Adrian Suljanovic is a journalist at Broker Daily with more than two years experience reporting on all facets of the third party distribution channel.

Adrian has written for a range of business and finance titles including IFA, Investor Daily and Lawyer’s Weekly before joining the mortgages team in 2022.

He graduated from the University of Wollongong in 2021 gaining a Bachelor of Communication & Media with a major in Digital & Social Media.

E-mail Adrian at: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.