iscover
iscover 
Research from Roy Morgan has revealed that 27.7 per cent of mortgage holders are now considered ‘At Risk’ of experiencing mortgage stress.
This marks a 1.2 per cent drop from the previous month. The study, which was conducted over the three months leading to February 2025, follows the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent interest rate cut of 0.25 per cent to 4.1 per cent. This was the first interest rate reduction in over four years, since November 2020.
The 27.7 per cent of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ in February 2025 represents the lowest level in three months, the lowest since November 2024. Following the introduction of stage 3 tax cuts in July 2024, the share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ had fallen for four consecutive months until October.
However, it began to rise again over the next three months, before the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut in mid-February.
In contrast, the record high of 35.6 per cent of mortgage holders experiencing mortgage stress occurred in mid-2008.
The research also highlighted that the number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has grown by 742,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began raising interest rates. The official interest rate is now at 4.1 per cent, following the mid-February cut.
The number of Australians classified as ‘Extremely At Risk’ has reached 1,066,000 or 19.6 per cent of mortgage holders. This figure is significantly higher than the long-term average of 14.7 per cent over the past decade.
Looking ahead, if the RBA cuts interest rates by 0.25 per cent to 3.85 per cent in April, the share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ is expected to drop further. This could lead to a decrease of 33,000, reducing the total to 1,489,000 or 26.7 per cent of mortgage holders.
If the RBA makes an additional interest rate cut of 0.25 per cent to 3.6 per cent in May, the share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ is predicted to decline by 78,000, bringing the total to 1,411,000 or 25.3 per cent of mortgage holders. This would represent a reduction of 138,000 mortgage holders from current figures.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said: “The signs are good there will be further interest rate cuts in the months ahead, as long as official estimates of inflation stay within the 2–3 per cent target range.
“For these reasons we have modelled the impact on mortgage stress of a cut to interest rates of +0.25 per cent in both April and May to 3.6 per cent.”
[RELATED: Unemployment rate holds firm despite downside surprise]
