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Australia’s major political parties are facing growing electoral risks in traditionally safe seats, as a worsening housing affordability crisis pushes younger voters toward independents and minor parties, according to an analysis published by The Australian Financial Review.
The analysis, compiled by CoreLogic (soon to be rebranded as Cotality) and reported by the Financial Review, draws on nearly 25,000 data points.
It revealed that housing affordability has sharply deteriorated in key Labor and Coalition electorates since the 2022 federal election, potentially reshaping the political landscape ahead of the next vote.
In Sydney, several Labor strongholds – Watson, Blaxland, McMahon, and Kingsford Smith – have seen some of the steepest declines in affordability, measured by the rising share of household income required to service a mortgage or pay rent.
Coalition-held urban electorates, such as Banks and Bradfield, and Gold Coast seats McPherson and Moncrieff, have also experienced significant affordability declines.
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said that housing has “emerged as a pivotal issue in the upcoming federal election” as housing policy has dominated discussion among voters.
“And rightly so,” Lawless said.
“An imbalance between housing supply and demand, alongside cost-of-living pressures, high interest rates and low savings has pushed the cost of owning or renting a home higher, placing immense pressure on many Australians, particularly first-time homebuyers and renters.”
However, Lawless said that this is not a new issue and that most economists have agreed that housing policies announced in the lead-up to the election are “more focused on applying a Band-Aid to the symptoms” rather than addressing the real underlying issues, that being a “long running under-supply of appropriate housing relative to demand”.
The Financial Review’s analysis further showed that the crisis is not confined to the east coast.
In Perth and Adelaide, surging property prices have drastically increased the time it takes to save a 20 per cent deposit, with 17 of the 20 worst-affected electorates located in Western Australia and South Australia.
Despite this, both cities still offer relatively better prospects for first home buyers compared to Sydney and Melbourne.
The data also suggested a growing generational divide in political preferences.
While a majority of voters (56 per cent) still favour majority governments, a clear majority of voters aged 18–34 (60 per cent) and 35–49 (58 per cent) now believe minority governments deliver better outcomes.
Affordability pressures are most acute in Sydney, with 13 of the top 20 electorates with the highest income-to-serviceability ratios located there.
These include electorates currently held by both major parties, such as Bradfield, Banks, Cook, Berowra, and Mitchell (Coalition) and Watson, Blaxland, Kingsford Smith, and Barton (Labor), as well as several seats now held by independents, such as Mackellar, Fowler, Wentworth, and Warringah.
The analysis also named McPherson and Moncrieff – two historically safe Coalition seats on the Gold Coast – as under threat from Climate 200-backed independents, while Richmond, a Labor seat encompassing Byron Bay, faces increasing pressure from the Australian Greens Party.
Speaking to Broker Daily, FirstPoint Mortgage Brokers director Troy Phillips said he believes that “we may see a move toward minority parties”.
“Housing supply across the board, ownership and rent, will be a big issue ... Teals have been a monumental flip and the Greens have had decades to move the needle and haven’t,” he said.
“We will need to wait a couple more weeks to see how it plays out.”
As of 22 April 2025, the latest Roy Morgan voting intentions have revealed a further increase to the election-winning two-party preferred lead for the ALP, up to 55.5 per cent, compared to 44.5 per cent for the LNP as early voting gets underway.
According to Roy Morgan, primary support for the ALP increased by 2.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent, slightly ahead of the Coalition on 34 per cent.
Support for the Greens remained at a six-month high of 14.5 per cent, while One Nation support held at 6 per cent.
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