Rapid population growth worsening housing supply shortage: UDIA

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed on 21 March that the national population grew by 2.5 per cent in the 12 months to 30 September 2023, bringing the total population to 26.8 million.

According to Beidar Cho, ABS head of demography, 83 per cent of the annual population growth was from net overseas migration, while the remaining 17 per cent was from “natural increase”.

HIA chief economist Tim Reardon said: “Australia’s population reached 26.8 million in September 2023, more than a decade ahead of the Australian Government’s forecast.

“Underestimation of population growth is a systemic policy failure that compounds the challenge of delivering sufficient housing.”

Reardon suggested that the Australian government invest in “improving the quality of housing data” to address housing supply issues.

The Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) released its State of the Land 2024 Report and found that Australia’s population growth has increased unsustainably over the last 15 years compared to new dwelling growth.

UDIA said that this has “[underpinned] the current rental and affordability crisis”.

The Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) and the National Housing Accord aim to produce 1.2 million more homes in the five years from mid-2024 (240,000 a year).

Speaking on the government’s supply initiatives, the UDIA said that “the enormity of the task is obvious” when considering increased land prices combined with declining completion rates.

Aggregate sales were down 2 per cent nationally for newly built multi-units, totalling 19,289 sales. According to UDIA, this was a 52 per cent reduction across the decade average.

The research revealed that new unit sales have reduced every year since 2015 (except for 2021), when there were 74,525 sales.

UDIA found that there were 52,500 multi-unit completions in 2023, which was 26 per cent below the decade average despite a 4 per cent increase since 2022.

Increased building costs have “continued to weigh down dwelling commencements”, according to the association, as new detached house starts were down 22 per cent across the 12 months to September 2023.

According to the report, to meet the government target of building 240,000 homes a year, the construction worker pool would need to grow by approximately 45 per cent.

Col Dutton, UDIA national president, said: “This report is the clear evidence that Government needs more focus on boosting development ready land supply if it is to have any hope of achieving its ambition to permanently ease housing affordability and improve dwelling delivery.

“This is why the UDIA National’s advocacy is keenly focused on measures that boost supply pipelines across the entire housing spectrum, preparing for population growth necessary for recovery and clearing away inefficient barriers to dwelling delivery.

“These initiatives are the responsibility of all Governments to ensure our industry can continue to deliver homes for all Australians.”

[Related: Government releases details of Housing Australia financing]