Which Sydney suburbs are bucking the price trend?

Property prices in many parts of Sydney are trending down, but a new report has identified a select group of suburbs where prices are likely to rise in the near term.

The quarterly Shore Financial State of Sydney Report divided the city’s 600-plus suburbs into five quintiles, based on their current median asking price for houses:

• Quintile 1 = Heartland Sydney
• Quintile 2 = Suburban Sydney
• Quintile 3 = Rising Sydney
• Quintile 4 = Professional Sydney
• Quintile 5 = Affluent Sydney

The report highlighted the top five suburbs in each quintile by excluding those that do not meet certain benchmarks related to asking prices, days on market, inventory levels, and sales volumes over the previous three months.

The remaining suburbs are ranked based on expected growth in asking prices over the next six months.

The leading suburbs in each quintile are Glenmore Park (Heartland Sydney, up by 9 per cent annually to $1.15 million), Kings Park (Suburban Sydney, 12 per cent to $1.2 million), Belmore (Rising Sydney, 10 per cent to $1.7 million), Gymea (Professional Sydney, 6 per cent to $1.7 million), and Canada Bay (Affluent Sydney, 9 per cent to $2.7 million).

In all five locations, asking prices for houses are forecast to increase by more than 5 per cent in the six months to August.

Theo Chambers, Shore Financial CEO, said the report had identified a select group of locations bucking the norm.

“Greater Sydney’s housing market has remained relatively stable over the past year, with the median house price rising 5.2 per cent over the year to January 2025. While overall growth has been modest, certain suburbs have experienced more pronounced price increases, highlighting pockets of strong demand across the city,” he said.

According to Chambers, areas such as Leichhardt, Canada Bay, and Auburn have recorded annual price increases of approximately 9–11 per cent, largely outpacing the wider Sydney market.

“Stronger growth locations in 2025 can be found across the city – while they’re occurring across a range of price points, they do have one thing in common: low days on market and limited supplies of inventory, which means buyers in those markets are feeling a sense of urgency,” Chambers said.

He said that while demand is likely to be soft in most parts of Sydney over the next six months, some areas will continue to experience growth.

“If you’re a buyer, it’s important you understand whether conditions in your target suburb are favouring buyers or sellers, because that will influence your pricing and negotiating strategy,” he said.

Furthermore, Chambers said that interest rates could affect the predictions made in the report.

“With interest rate reductions now underway, market dynamics are likely to change,” he said.

“While the February rate cut won’t immediately improve serviceability in a significant way or enable more buyers to enter the market, it will lift confidence and sentiment, which play a key role in influencing property prices.

“Further rate cuts will improve buyers’ borrowing capacities significantly, allowing them to pay more for a property. This will have a direct impact on Sydney house prices, particularly in mortgage-reliant suburbs, where affordability pressures have weighed on demand.”

PropTrack’s senior economist Eleanor Creagh noted a slight improvement in affordability and the expectations of future price growth driving buyer confidence, particularly across Sydney and Melbourne.

“This is reflected in a further strengthening in auction clearance rates after the Reserve Bank’s decision to begin cutting interest rates,” Creagh said.

“In Melbourne and Sydney auction clearance rates are respectively 8.6 and 7.3 percentage points higher than the average during the spring selling season.”

Sydney (along with Melbourne) has typically seen the largest lifts in home prices following interest rate reductions due to higher debt levels and increased leverage reliance, according to Creagh.

“Sydney has historically seen the strongest post-rate cut increase, with average monthly price growth of 1.2 per cent and quarterly growth of 4.1 per cent. Melbourne follows closely with 0.7 per cent monthly growth and 2.6 per cent quarterly growth following the first rate cut,” she said.

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Adrian Suljanovic is a journalist at Broker Daily with more than two years experience reporting on all facets of the third party distribution channel.

He graduated from the University of Wollongong in 2021 gaining a Bachelor of Communication & Media with a major in Digital & Social Media.

E-mail Adrian at: adrian.suljanovic@momentummedia.com.au